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St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 00:30

St. Louis City

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Colorado Rapids

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.2%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.9%1-111.0%1-26.1%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.2%3-15.8%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.8%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 50.0% 2.00 +5.8%

Draw 23.9% 26.0% 3.85 -4.8%

Away win 23.2% 31.3% 3.20 -15.5%

Over 2.5 58.5% 64.5% 1.55 -9.3%

Over 3.5 35.3% 42.6% 2.35 -17.0%

BTTS 55.4% 67.6% 1.48 -18.0%

Home O1.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Away O1.5 36.4% 44.4% 2.25 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Louis City1.8

Colorado Rapids1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.5% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. LOUIS CITY · PPG 1.86

COLORADO RAPIDS · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

St. Louis City (H) 52.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +5.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -4.8%

Colorado Rapids (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Louis City face Colorado Rapids in USA - MLS on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Louis City a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Colorado Rapids 23%, so St. Louis City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for St. Louis City and 1.1 for Colorado Rapids (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Louis City are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.78 for Colorado Rapids.

St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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