Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / Portland Timbers II vs Real Monarchs
Portland Timbers II vs Real Monarchs Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro
Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 20:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 50% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%
Form & verdict
PORTLAND TIMBERS II · PPG 1.44
REAL MONARCHS · PPG 0.88
xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Portland Timbers II face Real Monarchs in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Timbers II a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Real Monarchs 26%, so Portland Timbers II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Portland Timbers II and 1.1 for Real Monarchs (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Timbers II are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.88 for Real Monarchs. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.4%.