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Ventura County vs The Town Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 02:00

Ventura County

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

The Town

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.7%0-24.2%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.7%1-110.1%1-27.5%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.5%3-15.3%3-24.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.5%4+-22.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 38.2% 2.62 +24.7%

Draw 23.6% 26.3% 3.80 -6.2%

Away win 28.8% 46.5% 2.15 -22.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Over 3.5 41.3% 50.0% 2.00 -17.4%

BTTS 63.4% 74.6% 1.34 -15.0%

Home O1.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Away O1.5 49.0% 57.8% 1.73 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 0%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.4%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ventura County1.8

The Town1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VENTURA COUNTY · PPG 2.00

THE TOWN · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ventura County (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +24.7%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.2%

The Town (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ventura County face The Town in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ventura County a 48% chance, the draw 24% and The Town 29%, so Ventura County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ventura County and 1.5 for The Town (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ventura County are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for The Town. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.9%.

Ventura County vs The Town Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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