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San Diego vs FC Dallas Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 01:30

San Diego

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Dallas

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.1%0-23.5%0-32.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.9%1-18.3%1-27.0%1-34.0%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.4%3-15.7%3-24.8%3-32.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.6%4+-23.9%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 47.2% 2.12 -0.4%

Draw 22.0% 25.3% 3.95 -7.9%

Away win 31.0% 34.5% 2.90 -10.1%

Over 2.5 67.0% 71.4% 1.40 -6.2%

Over 3.5 45.9% 50.0% 2.00 -8.2%

BTTS 68.9% 73.5% 1.36 -6.3%

Home O1.5 57.2% 61.7% 1.62 -7.3%

Away O1.5 49.0% 52.4% 1.91 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob68.9%

H 47% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Diego2.0

FC Dallas1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 45.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN DIEGO · PPG 1.33

FC DALLAS · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Diego (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -0.4%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.9%

FC Dallas (A) 31.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Diego face FC Dallas in USA - MLS on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Diego a 47% chance, the draw 22% and FC Dallas 31%, so San Diego are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for San Diego and 1.7 for FC Dallas (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Diego are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.86 for FC Dallas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.3%.

San Diego vs FC Dallas Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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