Today / USA - MLS / San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy

San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 02:30

San Jose Earthquakes

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Los Angeles Galaxy

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.4%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.5%1-18.1%1-23.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.9%3-17.6%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-17.9%4+-23.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 54.3% 1.84 +1.9%

Draw 21.4% 24.4% 4.10 -7.4%

Away win 23.2% 28.6% 3.50 -11.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Over 3.5 41.3% 47.6% 2.10 -13.3%

BTTS 55.4% 70.4% 1.42 -21.3%

Home O1.5 61.8% 64.5% 1.55 -4.2%

Away O1.5 29.2% 45.5% 2.20 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Jose Earthquakes2.4

Los Angeles Galaxy1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES · PPG 1.62

LOS ANGELES GALAXY · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Jose Earthquakes (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +1.9%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.4%

Los Angeles Galaxy (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Jose Earthquakes face Los Angeles Galaxy in USA - MLS on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Jose Earthquakes a 55% chance, the draw 21% and Los Angeles Galaxy 23%, so San Jose Earthquakes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.0 for Los Angeles Galaxy (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Jose Earthquakes are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.38 for Los Angeles Galaxy. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.7%.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions