Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II
North Texas vs Los Angeles FC II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro
Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 00:45
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 62% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 58%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.3% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%
Form & verdict
NORTH TEXAS · PPG 1.83
LOS ANGELES FC II · PPG 0.75
xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
North Texas face Los Angeles FC II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Texas a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Los Angeles FC II 19%, so North Texas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for North Texas and 1.1 for Los Angeles FC II (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Texas are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.75 for Los Angeles FC II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +46.2%.