Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / Atlanta United II vs New York City II
Atlanta United II vs New York City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro
Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 15:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 54% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%
Form & verdict
ATLANTA UNITED II · PPG 2.12
NEW YORK CITY II · PPG 1.44
xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Atlanta United II face New York City II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlanta United II a 54% chance, the draw 22% and New York City II 24%, so Atlanta United II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Atlanta United II and 1.3 for New York City II (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlanta United II are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.44 for New York City II. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.2%.