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Los Angeles FC vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 02:30

Los Angeles FC

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sporting Kansas City

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.5%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.6%1-14.7%1-21.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.5%2-17.4%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.1%3-17.8%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-019.3%4+-113.5%4+-24.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.7% 80.6% 1.24 -11.1%

Draw 18.3% 16.0% 6.25 +8.6%

Away win 10.0% 10.6% 9.40 -3.6%

Over 2.5 67.0% 76.9% 1.30 -12.9%

Over 3.5 45.9% 54.6% 1.83 -16.0%

BTTS 53.8% 60.6% 1.65 -11.2%

Home O1.5 77.3% 82.0% 1.22 -5.7%

Away O1.5 20.1% 27.0% 3.70 -15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.8%

H 72% / xG 3.2-0.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 4–0 8.8%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Angeles FC3.2

Sporting Kansas City0.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 45.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANGELES FC · PPG 2.11

SPORTING KANSAS CITY · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.46 for Home, form 2.11 vs 0.75 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Los Angeles FC (H) 71.7%

ODDS 1.24 · IMPLIED 80.6% EV -11.1%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +8.6%

Sporting Kansas City (A) 10.0%

ODDS 9.40 · IMPLIED 10.6% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Angeles FC face Sporting Kansas City in USA - MLS on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles FC a 72% chance, the draw 18% and Sporting Kansas City 10%, so Los Angeles FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Los Angeles FC and 0.7 for Sporting Kansas City (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles FC are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.75 for Sporting Kansas City.

Los Angeles FC vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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