Today / USA - MLS / Houston Dynamo vs Austin

Houston Dynamo vs Austin Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 00:30

Houston Dynamo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Austin

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.3%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.0%1-19.3%1-24.8%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.9%3-17.1%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-16.2%4+-23.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 57.8% 1.73 -0.2%

Draw 22.2% 26.3% 3.80 -9.4%

Away win 20.1% 22.7% 4.40 -6.9%

Over 2.5 61.5% 55.6% 1.80 +10.7%

Over 3.5 39.9% 33.3% 3.00 +19.7%

BTTS 55.4% 57.8% 1.73 -4.2%

Home O1.5 61.8% 56.5% 1.77 +9.4%

Away O1.5 32.8% 30.3% 3.30 +8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 58% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houston Dynamo2.1

Austin1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUSTON DYNAMO · PPG 2.00

AUSTIN · PPG 0.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Houston Dynamo (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -0.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.4%

Austin (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Houston Dynamo face Austin in USA - MLS on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houston Dynamo a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Austin 20%, so Houston Dynamo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Houston Dynamo and 1.0 for Austin (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houston Dynamo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.38 for Austin. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.7%.

Houston Dynamo vs Austin Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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