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Paks vs Puskas A. Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:15

Paks

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Puskas A.

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.0%0-24.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.7%1-110.5%1-27.2%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.3%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.0%3-15.5%3-23.7%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.6%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 51.5% 1.94 -9.0%

Draw 23.2% 28.2% 3.55 -17.6%

Away win 29.8% 29.4% 3.40 +1.3%

Over 2.5 60.5% 62.5% 1.60 -3.2%

Over 3.5 38.1% 40.0% 2.50 -4.8%

BTTS 61.7% 66.7% 1.50 -7.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.7%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0✓ 7.7%

#4 1–2 7.2%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paks1.8

Puskas A.1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 38.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PAKS · PPG 1.57

PUSKAS A. · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Paks (H) 46.9%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -9.0%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -17.6%

Puskas A. (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paks face Puskas A. in Hungary - NB I on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paks a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Puskas A. 30%, so Paks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Paks and 1.4 for Puskas A. (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paks are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.60 for Puskas A.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Paks vs Puskas A. Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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