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Crewe A. U21 vs QP Rangers U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Monday, April 13, 2026

Crewe A. U21

PPG 0.93 · HOME

UPCOMING

QP Rangers U21

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.6%0-26.0%0-33.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.9%1-111.0%1-28.7%1-34.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.0%2-18.0%2-26.4%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.4%3-13.9%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 34.5% 2.90 +1.8%

Draw 24.0% 26.3% 3.80 -8.8%

Away win 40.9% 51.3% 1.95 -20.3%

Over 2.5 58.7% — — —

Over 3.5 36.3% — — —

BTTS 61.0% 76.9% 1.30 -20.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 18%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.0%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–1 7.6%

#5 1–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crewe A. U211.5

QP Rangers U211.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CREWE A. U21 · PPG 0.93

QP RANGERS U21 · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Crewe A. U21 (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +1.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.8%

QP Rangers U21 (A) 40.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crewe A. U21 face QP Rangers U21 in England - Professional Development League on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crewe A. U21 a 35% chance, the draw 24% and QP Rangers U21 41%, so QP Rangers U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Crewe A. U21 and 1.6 for QP Rangers U21 (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crewe A. U21 are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.14 for QP Rangers U21. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.8%.

Crewe A. U21 vs QP Rangers U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Match Preview & Prediction

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