FNL

CZECH REPUBLIC · 77 MATCHES TRACKED · 15 APR 2026 – 4 SEPT 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

Upcoming FNL predictions

5 FIXTURES WITH ODDS · MODEL PICK, PROBABILITY AND EV PER MATCH

DateMatchPickProbOddsEV

4 SEPT16:00 Karviná vs Kladno Over 2.5 60% 1.50 -11%4 SEPT16:00 Vysočina Jihlava vs Arsenal Česká Lípa BTTS 55% 1.60 -12%4 SEPT16:00 Prostějov vs Táborsko BTTS 53% 1.65 -13%4 SEPT16:00 Ústí nad Labem vs Slavia Praha II Over 2.5 65% 1.48 -4%4 SEPT16:00 Vlašim vs Třinec Over 2.5 60% 1.53 -9%

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 72 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

43.1%

1X2

31/72

54.2%

O/U 2.5

39/72

55.6%

BTTS

40/72

43.1%

Exact score

31/72

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

60.0%

Hit rate

12/20

1.70

Avg odds

+1.3%

ROI

+0.3u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=9 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.69 · +11.8% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=6 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.71 · -43.8% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.71 · +14.3% ROI

BTTS · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.70 · +70.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

33%

Hit

-39.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

100%

Hit

+36.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

80%

Hit

+35.4%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

55%

Hit

-6.4%

ROI

Match log

72 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

August 2026 // 10 PICKS · 6 HIT · 4 MISS

30 AUG Slavia Praha II vs Opava Over 2.5 -3% 3–3 HIT 29 AUG Hanácká vs Prostějov BTTS -12% 2–1 HIT 29 AUG Táborsko vs Ústí nad Labem BTTS -9% 0–1 MISS 23 AUG Slavia Praha II vs Hanácká Home +5% 4–1 HIT 21 AUG Vysočina Jihlava vs Táborsko BTTS -11% 0–1 MISS 21 AUG Vlašim vs Příbram BTTS -16% 2–2 HIT 16 AUG Viktoria Žižkov vs Baník Ostrava II BTTS -17% 1–4 HIT 15 AUG Příbram vs Prostějov Home -2% 2–2 MISS 15 AUG Hanácká vs Vysočina Jihlava — NO PICK 0–4 —15 AUG Táborsko vs Opava — NO PICK 3–0 —9 AUG Baník Ostrava II vs Táborsko — NO PICK 1–2 —7 AUG Vysočina Jihlava vs Příbram — NO PICK 1–2 —7 AUG Vlašim vs Viktoria Žižkov BTTS -16% 4–1 HIT 1 AUG Hanácká vs Ústí nad Labem BTTS -16% 0–2 MISS

July 2026 // 1 PICK · 0 HIT · 1 MISS

31 JUL Viktoria Žižkov vs Prostějov BTTS -15% 1–0 MISS