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Kormákur / Hvöt vs Selfoss Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 17:00

Kormákur / Hvöt

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Selfoss

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.3%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.1%1-16.4%1-23.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.5%2-18.8%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.8%3-18.2%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-010.6%4+-111.1%4+-25.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.0% — — —

Draw 16.8% — — —

Away win 18.2% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 44.5% — — —

BTTS 62.4% — — —

Home O1.5 64.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.4%

H 65% / xG 2.8-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 2–0 8.5%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 7.8%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kormákur / Hvöt2.8

Selfoss1.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KORMÁKUR / HVÖT · PPG 2.17

SELFOSS · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.73 for Home, form 2.17 vs 1.71 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kormákur / Hvöt (H) 65.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Selfoss (A) 18.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kormákur / Hvöt face Selfoss in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kormákur / Hvöt a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Selfoss 18%, so Kormákur / Hvöt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Kormákur / Hvöt and 1.0 for Selfoss (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kormákur / Hvöt are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.71 for Selfoss.

Kormákur / Hvöt vs Selfoss Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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