Today / Iceland - 2. Deild / Fjolnir vs Haukar

Fjolnir vs Haukar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 14 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 19:15

Fjolnir

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Haukar

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 75% chance

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.0%0-22.9%0-31.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-03.4%1-16.7%1-26.5%1-34.2%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.8%2-17.4%2-27.2%2-34.7%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.8%3-15.5%3-25.4%3-33.5%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-15.1%4+-25.0%4+-33.3%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 30.3% 3.30 +47.5%

Draw 21.6% 26.3% 3.80 -10.8%

Away win 33.7% 55.6% 1.80 -39.3%

Over 2.5 71.3% 76.9% 1.30 -7.3%

Over 3.5 49.7% 58.8% 1.70 -15.5%

BTTS 69.5% 76.9% 1.30 -9.7%

Home O1.5 61.8% 53.2% 1.88 +16.2%

Away O1.5 49.0% 70.9% 1.41 -30.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.2%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.5%

H 45% / xG 2.2-2.0 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.7%

#2 2–1✓ 7.4%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fjolnir2.2

Haukar2.0

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.3% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FJOLNIR · PPG 1.83

HAUKAR · PPG 1.67

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

75%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fjolnir (H) 44.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +47.5%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.8%

Haukar (A) 33.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -39.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fjolnir face Haukar in Iceland - 2. Deild on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fjolnir a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Haukar 34%, so Fjolnir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Fjolnir and 2.0 for Haukar (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fjolnir are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.67 for Haukar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +51.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Fjolnir vs Haukar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - 2. Deild Predictions