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Fjolnir vs Haukar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 19:15

Fjolnir

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Haukar

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.1%0-23.0%0-31.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-03.5%1-16.8%1-26.6%1-34.2%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.9%2-17.5%2-27.2%2-34.7%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.8%3-15.5%3-25.3%3-33.4%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-15.1%4+-24.9%4+-33.2%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 36.4% 2.75 +22.9%

Draw 21.6% 25.0% 4.00 -8.2%

Away win 33.7% 50.0% 2.00 -32.6%

Over 2.5 70.0% 76.9% 1.30 -9.0%

Over 3.5 49.7% 58.1% 1.72 -14.5%

BTTS 69.5% 78.7% 1.27 -11.7%

Home O1.5 61.8% 58.1% 1.72 +6.3%

Away O1.5 49.0% 65.8% 1.52 -25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.5%

H 45% / xG 2.2-1.9 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.8%

#2 2–1 7.5%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fjolnir2.2

Haukar1.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.0% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FJOLNIR · PPG 1.83

HAUKAR · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fjolnir (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +22.9%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.2%

Haukar (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -32.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fjolnir face Haukar in Iceland - 2. Deild on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fjolnir a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Haukar 34%, so Fjolnir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Fjolnir and 1.9 for Haukar (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fjolnir are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.67 for Haukar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.1%.

Fjolnir vs Haukar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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