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Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs Thróttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 14:00

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Thróttur Vogar

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.70 for Home, form 1.43 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.1%0-21.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.0%1-15.9%1-23.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.2%2-18.5%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-18.1%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-111.8%4+-26.9%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% — — —

Draw 16.6% — — —

Away win 19.3% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 49.6% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 77.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.0%

H 64% / xG 2.9-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 3–0 6.9%

#5 1–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir2.9

Thróttur Vogar1.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FJARDABYGGD / LEIKNIR · PPG 1.43

THRÓTTUR VOGAR · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.70 for Home, form 1.43 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (H) 64.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Thróttur Vogar (A) 19.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir face Thróttur Vogar in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fjardabyggd / Leiknir a 64% chance, the draw 17% and Thróttur Vogar 19%, so Fjardabyggd / Leiknir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir and 1.2 for Thróttur Vogar (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fjardabyggd / Leiknir are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.00 for Thróttur Vogar.

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs Thróttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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