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Ituzaingó vs Sportivo Italiano Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 17:00

Ituzaingó

PPG 0.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sportivo Italiano

PPG 1.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+18.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-117.4%0-212.8%0-36.3%0-4+3.2%1 1-07.9%1-111.5%1-28.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-02.6%2-13.8%2-22.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.6%3-10.8%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.2% 29.0% 3.45 -24.4%

Draw 26.2% 33.3% 3.00 -12.8%

Away win 56.6% 47.6% 2.10 +18.9%

Over 2.5 46.8% 38.5% 2.60 +21.7%

Over 3.5 25.8% 22.2% 4.50 +9.7%

BTTS 48.5% 47.6% 2.10 +1.8%

Home O1.5 33.3% 26.7% 3.75 +24.9%

Away O1.5 49.0% 39.2% 2.55 +24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.5%

A 57% / xG 0.7-1.5 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.4%

#2 0–0 11.9%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 0–2 12.8%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituzaingó0.7

Sportivo Italiano1.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUZAINGÓ · PPG 0.62

SPORTIVO ITALIANO · PPG 1.85

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.81 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ituzaingó (H) 17.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -24.4%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.8%

Sportivo Italiano (A) 56.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituzaingó face Sportivo Italiano in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituzaingó a 17% chance, the draw 26% and Sportivo Italiano 57%, so Sportivo Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ituzaingó and 1.5 for Sportivo Italiano (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituzaingó are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.85 for Sportivo Italiano. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +24.9%.

Ituzaingó vs Sportivo Italiano Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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