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Defensores Unidos vs UAI Urquiza Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Defensores Unidos

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

UAI Urquiza

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.9%0-113.1%0-23.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.1%1-111.6%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.3%2-15.1%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.7%3-11.5%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 47.6% 2.10 -9.9%

Draw 32.5% 34.5% 2.90 -5.8%

Away win 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -7.6%

Over 2.5 35.9% 37.7% 2.65 -4.9%

Over 3.5 17.8% 18.2% 5.50 -1.3%

BTTS 46.4% 46.5% 2.15 -0.2%

Home O1.5 33.3% 38.5% 2.60 -13.4%

Away O1.5 19.1% 25.6% 3.90 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.4%

H 43% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.9%

#2 1–0 21.1%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores Unidos0.9

UAI Urquiza0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES UNIDOS · PPG 1.62

UAI URQUIZA · PPG 0.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 1.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Defensores Unidos (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -9.9%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -5.8%

UAI Urquiza (A) 24.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores Unidos face UAI Urquiza in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores Unidos a 43% chance, the draw 33% and UAI Urquiza 25%, so Defensores Unidos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Defensores Unidos and 0.5 for UAI Urquiza (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores Unidos are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.85 for UAI Urquiza.

Defensores Unidos vs UAI Urquiza Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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