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Deportivo Armenio vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:30

Deportivo Armenio

PPG 1.85 · HOME

UPCOMING

Arsenal Sarandi

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-113.9%0-28.8%0-33.7%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.3%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.9%2-16.2%2-23.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.5%3-11.9%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.4% 32.3% 3.10 +0.4%

Draw 28.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.2%

Away win 38.9% 44.4% 2.25 -12.5%

Over 2.5 46.8% 38.5% 2.60 +21.7%

Over 3.5 26.7% 22.2% 4.50 +12.1%

BTTS 48.5% 47.6% 2.10 +1.8%

Home O1.5 33.7% 28.6% 3.50 +17.9%

Away O1.5 37.2% 37.7% 2.65 -1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.5%

D 29% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 0–1 13.9%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 1–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Armenio0.9

Arsenal Sarandi1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO ARMENIO · PPG 1.85

ARSENAL SARANDI · PPG 1.77

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.33, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Armenio (H) 32.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +0.4%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -9.2%

Arsenal Sarandi (A) 38.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Armenio face Arsenal Sarandi in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Armenio a 32% chance, the draw 29% and Arsenal Sarandi 39%, so Arsenal Sarandi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Deportivo Armenio and 1.3 for Arsenal Sarandi (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Armenio are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.77 for Arsenal Sarandi. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.7%.

Deportivo Armenio vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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