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Deportivo Merlo vs Villa San Carlos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 22:00

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.69 · HOME

UPCOMING

Villa San Carlos

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 37.7% — a clear edge.

+60.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.8%0-24.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.3%1-111.3%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.5%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.3%3-15.3%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 55.6% 1.80 -14.9%

Draw 25.1% 33.9% 2.95 -15.6%

Away win 27.7% 20.8% 4.80 +19.8%

Over 2.5 60.7% 37.7% 2.65 +60.9%

Over 3.5 37.5% 20.0% 5.00 +87.5%

BTTS 60.1% 44.4% 2.25 +35.2%

Home O1.5 53.5% 43.5% 2.30 +23.1%

Away O1.5 36.9% 21.1% 4.75 +75.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.1%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Merlo1.7

Villa San Carlos1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.69

VILLA SAN CARLOS · PPG 0.85

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Merlo (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -14.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -15.6%

Villa San Carlos (A) 27.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Merlo face Villa San Carlos in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Merlo a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Villa San Carlos 28%, so Deportivo Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Deportivo Merlo and 1.2 for Villa San Carlos (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Merlo are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.85 for Villa San Carlos. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +87.5%.

Deportivo Merlo vs Villa San Carlos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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