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Argentino Quilmes vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Argentino Quilmes

PPG 1.31 · HOME

UPCOMING

Villa Dalmine

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-119.1%0-210.8%0-34.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.9%1-112.4%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-03.5%2-14.0%2-22.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.8%3-10.9%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.5% 36.4% 2.75 -22.9%

Draw 31.6% 35.1% 2.85 -9.9%

Away win 45.9% 38.5% 2.60 +19.3%

Over 2.5 39.3% 35.1% 2.85 +12.0%

Over 3.5 19.1% 18.2% 5.50 +3.0%

BTTS 46.4% 45.5% 2.20 +2.1%

Home O1.5 33.3% 29.9% 3.35 +11.6%

Away O1.5 36.4% 31.3% 3.20 +16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob46.4%

A 46% / xG 0.6-1.1 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 0–1 19.1%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 0–2 10.8%

#5 1–0 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino Quilmes0.6

Villa Dalmine1.1

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO QUILMES · PPG 1.31

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 2.08

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.49, combined xG 1.78 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Argentino Quilmes (H) 22.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -22.9%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -9.9%

Villa Dalmine (A) 45.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino Quilmes face Villa Dalmine in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino Quilmes a 23% chance, the draw 32% and Villa Dalmine 46%, so Villa Dalmine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Argentino Quilmes and 1.1 for Villa Dalmine (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino Quilmes are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 2.08 for Villa Dalmine. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +16.5%.

Argentino Quilmes vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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