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Brown DE Adrogue vs Argentino de Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Brown DE Adrogue

PPG 0.77 · HOME

UPCOMING

Argentino de Merlo

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.4%0-117.4%0-29.2%0-33.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.3%1-113.0%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-04.6%2-14.8%2-22.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.1%3-11.2%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 38.2% 2.62 -16.2%

Draw 32.6% 33.9% 2.95 -3.8%

Away win 35.5% 38.2% 2.62 -7.0%

Over 2.5 39.3% 40.8% 2.45 -3.7%

Over 3.5 19.0% 22.2% 4.50 -8.7%

BTTS 46.7% 51.3% 1.95 -8.9%

Home O1.5 33.3% 34.7% 2.88 -4.1%

Away O1.5 36.4% 34.7% 2.88 +4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob46.7%

D 33% / xG 0.7-1.1 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.4%

#2 0–1 17.4%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 0–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brown DE Adrogue0.7

Argentino de Merlo1.1

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BROWN DE ADROGUE · PPG 0.77

ARGENTINO DE MERLO · PPG 1.23

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.32, combined xG 1.81 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Brown DE Adrogue (H) 32.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -16.2%

Draw 32.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -3.8%

Argentino de Merlo (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brown DE Adrogue face Argentino de Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brown DE Adrogue a 32% chance, the draw 33% and Argentino de Merlo 36%, so Argentino de Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Brown DE Adrogue and 1.1 for Argentino de Merlo (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brown DE Adrogue are averaging 0.77 points per game versus 1.23 for Argentino de Merlo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.6%.

Brown DE Adrogue vs Argentino de Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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