Today / Turkey - 2. Lig / Aksaray B. vs Aliaga FAS

Aksaray B. vs Aliaga FAS Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Kırmızı - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Aksaray B.

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Aliaga FAS

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away GOOD (1.69)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-110.6%0-210.9%0-37.5%0-4+6.2%1 1-04.7%1-19.6%1-29.9%1-36.8%1-4+5.6%2 2-02.1%2-14.4%2-24.5%2-33.1%2-4+2.5%3 3-00.6%3-11.3%3-21.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.7% — — —

Draw 20.3% — — —

Away win 64.0% — — —

Over 2.5 56.8% — — —

Over 3.5 34.4% — — —

BTTS 51.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -56.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob51.9%

A 64% / xG 0.9-2.1 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.9%

#2 0–1 10.6%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 1–1✓ 9.6%

#5 0–3 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aksaray B.0.9

Aliaga FAS2.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AKSARAY B. · PPG 1.56

ALIAGA FAS · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Aksaray B. (H) 15.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aliaga FAS (A) 64.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aksaray B. face Aliaga FAS in Turkey - 2. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aksaray B. a 16% chance, the draw 20% and Aliaga FAS 64%, so Aliaga FAS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Aksaray B. and 2.1 for Aliaga FAS (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aksaray B. are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.69 for Aliaga FAS. This match finished 1-1.

Aksaray B. vs Aliaga FAS Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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