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Aliaga FAS vs Bursaspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Kırmızı - 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Aliaga FAS

PPG 2.56 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

Bursaspor

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-110.9%0-26.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.4%1-113.0%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.2%2-17.8%2-24.8%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.5%3-13.1%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 37.4% — — —

Over 2.5 44.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.9% — — —

BTTS 49.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -56.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 15%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.6%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 10.9%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aliaga FAS1.2

Bursaspor1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIAGA FAS · PPG 2.56

BURSASPOR · PPG 2.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.56) > Away EXCELLENT (2.06)

Win probability 1X2

Aliaga FAS (H) 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bursaspor (A) 37.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aliaga FAS face Bursaspor in Turkey - 2. Lig on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aliaga FAS a 35% chance, the draw 27% and Bursaspor 37%, so Bursaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Aliaga FAS and 1.2 for Bursaspor (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aliaga FAS are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 2.06 for Bursaspor. This match finished 0-5.

Aliaga FAS vs Bursaspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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