Today / Turkey - 2. Lig / Elazigspor vs 24 Erzincanspor

Elazigspor vs 24 Erzincanspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Beyaz - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Elazigspor

PPG 1.71 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

24 Erzincanspor

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.3%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.5%1-18.0%1-24.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-19.6%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-17.7%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-18.2%4+-24.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.9% — — —

Draw 17.9% — — —

Away win 15.2% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 45.7% — — —

BTTS 59.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -56.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.6%

H 67% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 2–0✓ 9.0%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 1–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elazigspor2.4

24 Erzincanspor1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ELAZIGSPOR · PPG 1.71

24 ERZINCANSPOR · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Elazigspor (H) 66.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

24 Erzincanspor (A) 15.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Elazigspor face 24 Erzincanspor in Turkey - 2. Lig on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elazigspor a 67% chance, the draw 18% and 24 Erzincanspor 15%, so Elazigspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Elazigspor and 1.1 for 24 Erzincanspor (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elazigspor are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.18 for 24 Erzincanspor. This match finished 2-0.

Elazigspor vs 24 Erzincanspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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