Today / Turkey - 2. Lig / Kastamonuspor vs Muglaspor

Kastamonuspor vs Muglaspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Beyaz - 38 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Kastamonuspor

PPG 1.18 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Muglaspor

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.82) vs Home AVERAGE (1.18)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-120.5%0-213.5%0-36.0%0-4+2.6%1 1-08.4%1-111.1%1-27.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-02.3%2-13.0%2-22.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.4%3-10.5%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.3% — — —

Draw 28.8% — — —

Away win 55.9% — — —

Over 2.5 28.7% — — —

Over 3.5 11.9% — — —

BTTS 30.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -56.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob30.8%

A 56% / xG 0.5-1.3 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 20.5%

#2 0–0 15.5%

#3 0–2 13.5%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kastamonuspor0.5

Muglaspor1.3

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.7% · O3.5 PROB 11.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KASTAMONUSPOR · PPG 1.18

MUGLASPOR · PPG 1.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.82) vs Home AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Kastamonuspor (H) 15.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Muglaspor (A) 55.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kastamonuspor face Muglaspor in Turkey - 2. Lig on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kastamonuspor a 15% chance, the draw 29% and Muglaspor 56%, so Muglaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Kastamonuspor and 1.3 for Muglaspor (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kastamonuspor are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.82 for Muglaspor. This match finished 0-3.

Kastamonuspor vs Muglaspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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