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Rēzekne FA vs Mārupe Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 15:00

Rēzekne FA

PPG 0.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mārupe

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.44 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-18.6%0-210.2%0-38.1%0-4+8.5%1 1-03.4%1-18.1%1-29.6%1-37.6%1-4+8.0%2 2-01.6%2-13.8%2-24.5%2-33.6%2-4+3.7%3 3-00.5%3-11.2%3-21.4%3-31.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.4% — — —

Draw 21.6% — — —

Away win 62.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 41.3% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 33.8% — — —

Away O1.5 67.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob55.4%

A 62% / xG 0.9-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 0–3 8.1%

#5 1–3 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rēzekne FA0.9

Mārupe2.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RĒZEKNE FA · PPG 0.71

MĀRUPE · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.44 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Rēzekne FA (H) 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mārupe (A) 62.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Rēzekne FA face Mārupe in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rēzekne FA a 16% chance, the draw 22% and Mārupe 62%, so Mārupe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Rēzekne FA and 2.4 for Mārupe (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rēzekne FA are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.67 for Mārupe.

Rēzekne FA vs Mārupe Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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