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Leevon / PPK vs Skanste Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 15:30

Leevon / PPK

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Skanste

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.2%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.2%1-17.7%1-24.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.5%2-19.3%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.5%3-24.7%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-18.2%4+-25.1%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 22.8% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 44.5% — — —

BTTS 63.9% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 36.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.9%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leevon / PPK2.4

Skanste1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LEEVON / PPK · PPG 2.17

SKANSTE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.19 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Leevon / PPK (H) 55.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Skanste (A) 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Leevon / PPK face Skanste in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leevon / PPK a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Skanste 23%, so Leevon / PPK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Leevon / PPK and 1.2 for Skanste (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leevon / PPK are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.00 for Skanste.

Leevon / PPK vs Skanste Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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