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Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 14:00

Riga Mariners

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

JFK Ventspils

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.1%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.1%1-19.0%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-17.1%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-16.5%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 20.4% — — —

Over 2.5 60.8% — — —

Over 3.5 39.1% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 24.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 57% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga Mariners2.2

JFK Ventspils0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA MARINERS · PPG 2.00

JFK VENTSPILS · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Riga Mariners (H) 57.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

JFK Ventspils (A) 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga Mariners face JFK Ventspils in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga Mariners a 57% chance, the draw 23% and JFK Ventspils 20%, so Riga Mariners are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Riga Mariners and 0.9 for JFK Ventspils (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga Mariners are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.14 for JFK Ventspils.

Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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