Today / Latvia - 1. Liga / JDFS Alberts vs Super Nova 2

JDFS Alberts vs Super Nova 2 Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

JDFS Alberts

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Super Nova 2

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.9%0-22.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.4%1-18.5%1-25.7%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.2%3-16.9%3-24.6%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-16.4%4+-24.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% — — —

Draw 22.2% — — —

Away win 23.6% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 44.5% — — —

BTTS 64.0% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 41.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.0%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JDFS Alberts2.2

Super Nova 21.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JDFS ALBERTS · PPG 2.17

SUPER NOVA 2 · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

JDFS Alberts (H) 54.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Super Nova 2 (A) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

JDFS Alberts face Super Nova 2 in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JDFS Alberts a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Super Nova 2 24%, so JDFS Alberts are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for JDFS Alberts and 1.3 for Super Nova 2 (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JDFS Alberts are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.00 for Super Nova 2.

JDFS Alberts vs Super Nova 2 Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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