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Haka vs KäPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 12:00

Haka

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

KäPa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.3%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.8%1-18.0%1-24.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.4%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.6%3-17.7%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-18.2%4+-24.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 73.5% 1.36 -19.8%

Draw 21.4% 21.7% 4.60 -0.9%

Away win 19.5% 15.6% 6.40 +14.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 67.6% 1.48 -5.7%

Over 3.5 41.3% 45.5% 2.20 -9.1%

BTTS 58.5% 60.6% 1.65 -3.5%

Home O1.5 61.8% 73.5% 1.36 -16.0%

Away O1.5 31.7% 29.0% 3.45 +9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -39.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 59% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 9.4%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haka2.4

KäPa1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HAKA · PPG 1.75

KÄPA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.39 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Haka (H) 59.0%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -19.8%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -0.9%

KäPa (A) 19.5%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haka face KäPa in Finland - Ykkosliga on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haka a 59% chance, the draw 21% and KäPa 20%, so Haka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Haka and 1.0 for KäPa (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haka are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for KäPa. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.8%.

Haka vs KäPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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