Today / Finland - Ykkosliga / KaPa vs SJK Akatemia

KaPa vs SJK Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 16:00

KaPa

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

SJK Akatemia

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+12.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-16.9%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.7%1-110.8%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-18.5%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.3%3-14.5%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-12.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 48.8% 2.05 +12.1%

Draw 25.2% 28.2% 3.55 -6.3%

Away win 20.1% 33.3% 3.00 -23.8%

Over 2.5 47.5% 58.8% 1.70 -19.3%

Over 3.5 29.0% 36.4% 2.75 -12.2%

BTTS 48.5% 63.7% 1.57 -23.9%

Home O1.5 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Away O1.5 18.8% 40.8% 2.45 -32.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.7%

#2 2–0 14.0%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 1–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KaPa1.6

SJK Akatemia0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KAPA · PPG 1.33

SJK AKATEMIA · PPG 0.29

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=54.7%

Win probability 1X2

KaPa (H) 54.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +12.1%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.3%

SJK Akatemia (A) 20.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

KaPa face SJK Akatemia in Finland - Ykkosliga on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KaPa a 55% chance, the draw 25% and SJK Akatemia 20%, so KaPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for KaPa and 0.6 for SJK Akatemia (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KaPa are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.29 for SJK Akatemia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.1%.

KaPa vs SJK Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkosliga Predictions