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MP vs Kooteepee Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kooteepee

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-113.8%0-29.4%0-34.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.5%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.4%2-16.0%2-24.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.4%3-11.8%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 19.6% 5.10 +30.6%

Draw 26.9% 24.4% 4.10 +6.2%

Away win 43.5% 65.4% 1.53 -33.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 61.7% 1.62 -19.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

BTTS 52.3% 60.6% 1.65 -13.7%

Home O1.5 33.3% 30.8% 3.25 +8.2%

Away O1.5 41.9% 66.7% 1.50 -37.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -39.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.3%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 0–1 13.8%

#4 0–2 9.4%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MP0.9

Kooteepee1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MP · PPG 1.67

KOOTEEPEE · PPG 2.29

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.43, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

MP (H) 29.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +30.6%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +6.2%

Kooteepee (A) 43.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -33.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

MP face Kooteepee in Finland - Ykkosliga on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MP a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Kooteepee 44%, so Kooteepee are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for MP and 1.4 for Kooteepee (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MP are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.29 for Kooteepee. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +37.4%.

MP vs Kooteepee Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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