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Ekenas IF vs JaPS Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 13:00

Ekenas IF

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

JaPS

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.9%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.2%1-18.7%1-25.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.0%3-17.2%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-16.7%4+-24.0%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 51.3% 1.95 +5.9%

Draw 22.1% 28.6% 3.50 -13.6%

Away win 23.6% 30.8% 3.25 -14.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 60.6% 1.65 +5.4%

Over 3.5 41.1% 38.5% 2.60 +6.9%

BTTS 62.4% 65.4% 1.53 -4.5%

Home O1.5 62.9% 55.6% 1.80 +13.2%

Away O1.5 37.3% 40.8% 2.45 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.4%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 3–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ekenas IF2.2

JaPS1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EKENAS IF · PPG 2.14

JAPS · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=54.3%

Win probability 1X2

Ekenas IF (H) 54.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +5.9%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.6%

JaPS (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ekenas IF face JaPS in Finland - Ykkosliga on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ekenas IF a 54% chance, the draw 22% and JaPS 24%, so Ekenas IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Ekenas IF and 1.2 for JaPS (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ekenas IF are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.00 for JaPS. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.5%.

Ekenas IF vs JaPS Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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