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Jiangxi Liansheng vs Shenzhen 2028 Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 11:30

Jiangxi Liansheng

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shenzhen 2028

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.2%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.1%1-111.8%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.9%3-15.2%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 24.1% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 53.5% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jiangxi Liansheng1.6

Shenzhen 20281.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JIANGXI LIANSHENG · PPG 1.89

SHENZHEN 2028 · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jiangxi Liansheng (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shenzhen 2028 (A) 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Jiangxi Liansheng face Shenzhen 2028 in China - League Two on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jiangxi Liansheng a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Shenzhen 2028 24%, so Jiangxi Liansheng are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Jiangxi Liansheng and 1.1 for Shenzhen 2028 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jiangxi Liansheng are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.25 for Shenzhen 2028.

Jiangxi Liansheng vs Shenzhen 2028 Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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