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Guizhou Zhucheng vs Shangyu Pterosaur Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 11:30

Guizhou Zhucheng

PPG 2.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shangyu Pterosaur

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-18.2%0-22.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.6%1-111.5%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.1%2-18.1%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-13.8%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 20.0% — — —

Over 2.5 43.6% — — —

Over 3.5 23.0% — — —

BTTS 47.4% — — —

Home O1.5 45.5% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.4%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.6%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 2–0 13.1%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guizhou Zhucheng1.4

Shangyu Pterosaur0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GUIZHOU ZHUCHENG · PPG 2.62

SHANGYU PTEROSAUR · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guizhou Zhucheng (H) 53.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shangyu Pterosaur (A) 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guizhou Zhucheng face Shangyu Pterosaur in China - League Two on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guizhou Zhucheng a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Shangyu Pterosaur 20%, so Guizhou Zhucheng are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Guizhou Zhucheng and 0.6 for Shangyu Pterosaur (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guizhou Zhucheng are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 1.50 for Shangyu Pterosaur.

Guizhou Zhucheng vs Shangyu Pterosaur Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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