Today / Turkey - 2. Lig / Erbaaspor vs Ankaragucu

Erbaaspor vs Ankaragucu Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Beyaz - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Erbaaspor

PPG 1.18 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Ankaragucu

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.18) vs Away GOOD (1.59)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-113.0%0-210.8%0-36.0%0-4+3.6%1 1-06.9%1-111.5%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.0%2-15.1%2-24.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.9%3-11.5%3-21.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.8% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 55.9% — — —

Over 2.5 46.9% — — —

Over 3.5 25.3% — — —

BTTS 47.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -56.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob47.6%

A 56% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.0%

#2 1–1✓ 11.5%

#3 0–2 10.8%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Erbaaspor0.9

Ankaragucu1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ERBAASPOR · PPG 1.18

ANKARAGUCU · PPG 1.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.18) vs Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Erbaaspor (H) 19.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ankaragucu (A) 55.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Erbaaspor face Ankaragucu in Turkey - 2. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Erbaaspor a 20% chance, the draw 24% and Ankaragucu 56%, so Ankaragucu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Erbaaspor and 1.7 for Ankaragucu (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Erbaaspor are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.59 for Ankaragucu. This match finished 1-1.

Erbaaspor vs Ankaragucu Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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