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Smiltene vs Rīgas FS II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 11:00

Smiltene

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rīgas FS II

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.2%0-25.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.4%1-111.1%1-28.3%1-34.1%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.5%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.9%3-14.4%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 34.5% — — —

Over 2.5 61.5% — — —

Over 3.5 39.9% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 46.4% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 15%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Smiltene1.5

Rīgas FS II1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SMILTENE · PPG 0.83

RĪGAS FS II · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Smiltene (H) 40.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rīgas FS II (A) 34.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Smiltene face Rīgas FS II in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Smiltene a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Rīgas FS II 35%, so Smiltene are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Smiltene and 1.5 for Rīgas FS II (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Smiltene are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.80 for Rīgas FS II.

Smiltene vs Rīgas FS II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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