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UWA Nedlands vs Curtin University Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 07:00

UWA Nedlands

PPG 2.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Curtin University

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-13.5%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.7%1-18.0%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.2%3-17.0%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-16.9%4+-22.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.7% 84.7% 1.18 -24.8%

Draw 20.7% 15.4% 6.50 +20.7%

Away win 15.6% 11.1% 9.00 +24.2%

Over 2.5 60.7% 71.4% 1.40 -15.0%

Over 3.5 37.5% 51.8% 1.93 -27.6%

BTTS 48.5% 51.0% 1.96 -4.9%

Home O1.5 61.8% 83.3% 1.20 -25.8%

Away O1.5 20.1% 17.5% 5.70 +8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 64% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.4%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 3–0 10.2%

#4 1–1 8.0%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UWA Nedlands2.3

Curtin University0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UWA NEDLANDS · PPG 2.75

CURTIN UNIVERSITY · PPG 1.12

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.61 for Home, form 2.75 vs 1.12 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

UWA Nedlands (H) 63.7%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -24.8%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +20.7%

Curtin University (A) 15.6%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

UWA Nedlands face Curtin University in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UWA Nedlands a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Curtin University 16%, so UWA Nedlands are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for UWA Nedlands and 0.7 for Curtin University (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UWA Nedlands are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 1.12 for Curtin University. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +48.4%.

UWA Nedlands vs Curtin University Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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