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Murdoch Melville vs Gwelup Croatia Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 07:00

Murdoch Melville

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gwelup Croatia

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.7%0-23.6%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.1%1-19.2%1-27.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.9%3-15.9%3-24.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.5%4+-23.4%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 28.8% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 41.9% — — —

BTTS 63.9% — — —

Home O1.5 55.7% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.9%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Murdoch Melville2.0

Gwelup Croatia1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MURDOCH MELVILLE · PPG 1.12

GWELUP CROATIA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Murdoch Melville (H) 48.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gwelup Croatia (A) 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Murdoch Melville face Gwelup Croatia in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Murdoch Melville a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Gwelup Croatia 29%, so Murdoch Melville are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Murdoch Melville and 1.5 for Gwelup Croatia (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Murdoch Melville are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.25 for Gwelup Croatia.

Murdoch Melville vs Gwelup Croatia Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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