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Vaduz vs Rapperswil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Vaduz

PPG 2.87 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Rapperswil

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.1%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.7%1-16.0%1-23.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.2%2-18.6%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.9%3-18.2%3-24.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-011.4%4+-112.0%4+-26.2%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.0% 76.9% 1.30 -2.5%

Draw 14.2% 21.1% 4.75 -32.6%

Away win 10.8% 12.5% 8.00 -13.6%

Over 2.5 75.0% 70.4% 1.42 +6.5%

Over 3.5 55.1% 50.0% 2.00 +10.2%

BTTS 61.2% 62.5% 1.60 -2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 81%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.2%

H 75% / xG 2.9-1.0 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 8.6%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–0 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaduz2.9

Rapperswil1.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.0% · O3.5 PROB 55.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VADUZ · PPG 2.87

RAPPERSWIL · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.87), Away AVERAGE (1.07) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vaduz (H) 75.0%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -2.5%

Draw 14.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -32.6%

Rapperswil (A) 10.8%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaduz face Rapperswil in Switzerland - Challenge League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaduz a 75% chance, the draw 14% and Rapperswil 11%, so Vaduz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Vaduz and 1.0 for Rapperswil (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaduz are averaging 2.87 points per game versus 1.07 for Rapperswil. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Vaduz vs Rapperswil Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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