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Cruzeiro W vs São Paulo W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 00:30

Cruzeiro W

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

São Paulo W

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.6%0-25.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.7%1-112.4%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-18.9%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.7%3-14.3%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 35.7% 2.80 +30.5%

Draw 25.7% 34.5% 2.90 -15.3%

Away win 27.7% 43.5% 2.30 -21.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 50.0% 2.00 +7.8%

Over 3.5 32.8% 29.4% 3.40 +11.5%

BTTS 55.4% 57.8% 1.73 -4.2%

Home O1.5 46.3% 38.2% 2.62 +21.3%

Away O1.5 36.4% 44.4% 2.25 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 47% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruzeiro W1.4

São Paulo W1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZEIRO W · PPG 2.17

SÃO PAULO W · PPG 1.60

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cruzeiro W (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +30.5%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -15.3%

São Paulo W (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruzeiro W face São Paulo W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruzeiro W a 47% chance, the draw 26% and São Paulo W 28%, so Cruzeiro W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cruzeiro W and 1.2 for São Paulo W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruzeiro W are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.60 for São Paulo W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +55.5%.

Cruzeiro W vs São Paulo W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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