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Sao Paulo W vs Santos W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 12 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 20:30

Sao Paulo W

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Santos W

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-19.7%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.2%1-112.0%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.9%2-17.4%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.9%3-13.1%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 61.7% 1.62 -17.9%

Draw 28.2% 29.0% 3.45 -1.6%

Away win 21.1% 19.2% 5.20 +5.8%

Over 2.5 35.0% 48.8% 2.05 -28.2%

Over 3.5 11.9% 27.4% 3.65 -33.9%

BTTS 46.2% 51.3% 1.95 -9.9%

Home O1.5 35.1% 55.6% 1.80 -36.8%

Away O1.5 13.1% 23.8% 4.20 -27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 51% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.2%

#2 0–0 15.5%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 11.9%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Paulo W1.2

Santos W0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO PAULO W · PPG 2.50

SANTOS W · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=50.7%

Win probability 1X2

Sao Paulo W (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -17.9%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -1.6%

Santos W (A) 21.1%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Paulo W face Santos W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Paulo W a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Santos W 21%, so Sao Paulo W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sao Paulo W and 0.6 for Santos W (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Paulo W are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.20 for Santos W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Sao Paulo W vs Santos W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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