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America Mineiro W vs Santos W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 13 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 22:00

America Mineiro W

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Santos W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-118.3%0-210.7%0-34.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.8%1-112.5%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-03.7%2-14.3%2-22.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.8%3-11.0%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.8% 17.2% 5.80 +36.7%

Draw 31.8% 28.6% 3.50 +11.3%

Away win 40.4% 66.7% 1.50 -39.4%

Over 2.5 39.3% 47.6% 2.10 -17.5%

Over 3.5 19.7% 26.7% 3.75 -15.7%

BTTS 46.7% 52.4% 1.91 -10.8%

Home O1.5 33.3% 20.0% 5.00 +66.5%

Away O1.5 36.4% 55.6% 1.80 -34.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -42.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob46.7%

A 40% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.7%

#2 0–1✓ 18.3%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–2 10.7%

#5 1–0 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America Mineiro W0.7

Santos W1.2

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA MINEIRO W · PPG 0.50

SANTOS W · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

47%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.48, combined xG 1.85 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

America Mineiro W (H) 27.8%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +36.7%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +11.3%

Santos W (A) 40.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -39.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

America Mineiro W face Santos W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America Mineiro W a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Santos W 40%, so Santos W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for America Mineiro W and 1.2 for Santos W (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America Mineiro W are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Santos W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +66.5%. This match finished 0-1.

America Mineiro W vs Santos W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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