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Flamengo W vs Gremio W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 22:00

Flamengo W

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gremio W

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.1%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.6%1-111.6%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.4%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.2%3-15.1%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 54.1% 1.85 -14.0%

Draw 25.3% 34.5% 2.90 -16.0%

Away win 28.2% 25.6% 3.90 +6.0%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 32.8% 30.8% 3.25 +6.6%

BTTS 55.4% 54.1% 1.85 +2.5%

Home O1.5 53.5% 46.5% 2.15 +15.0%

Away O1.5 36.8% 30.3% 3.30 +21.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo W1.6

Gremio W1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO W · PPG 1.83

GREMIO W · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo W (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.0%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -16.0%

Gremio W (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo W face Gremio W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo W a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Gremio W 28%, so Flamengo W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Flamengo W and 1.2 for Gremio W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo W are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.57 for Gremio W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +29.8%.

Flamengo W vs Gremio W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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