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Flamengo W vs Gremio W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 13 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 22:00

Flamengo W

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gremio W

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.2%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.1%1-112.2%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.2%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.1%3-14.6%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 54.6% 1.83 -15.8%

Draw 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

Away win 27.8% 23.8% 4.20 +10.1%

Over 2.5 51.1% 50.0% 2.00 +2.2%

Over 3.5 29.6% 28.2% 3.55 +3.0%

BTTS 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Home O1.5 46.3% 51.3% 1.95 -9.7%

Away O1.5 36.4% 29.0% 3.45 +25.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -42.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 0–0 7.4%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo W1.5

Gremio W1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO W · PPG 1.83

GREMIO W · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo W (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -15.8%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.7%

Gremio W (A) 27.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo W face Gremio W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo W a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Gremio W 28%, so Flamengo W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Flamengo W and 1.1 for Gremio W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo W are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.57 for Gremio W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Flamengo W vs Gremio W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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