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Platense vs Union Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 1 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 00:15

Platense

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Santa Fe

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-113.2%0-27.3%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.2%1-113.5%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.2%2-16.8%2-23.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.1%3-12.3%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 35.7% 2.80 +3.0%

Draw 28.8% 35.5% 2.82 -11.3%

Away win 34.3% 35.7% 2.80 -4.0%

Over 2.5 46.8% 33.3% 3.00 +40.4%

Over 3.5 26.4% 16.0% 6.25 +39.0%

BTTS 48.5% 43.5% 2.30 +11.6%

Home O1.5 35.0% 28.6% 3.50 +22.5%

Away O1.5 36.4% 28.6% 3.50 +27.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -42.5%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Platense1.0

Union Santa Fe1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PLATENSE · PPG 1.00

UNION SANTA FE · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.09, combined xG 2.12 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Platense (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +3.0%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -11.3%

Union Santa Fe (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Platense face Union Santa Fe in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Platense a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Union Santa Fe 34%, so Platense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Platense and 1.1 for Union Santa Fe (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Platense are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.10 for Union Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +40.4%.

Platense vs Union Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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