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Velez Sarsfield vs Instituto Cordoba Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 22:00

Velez Sarsfield

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Instituto Cordoba

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.9%0-110.0%0-23.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.4%1-112.3%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-17.6%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.7%3-13.1%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 47.2% 2.12 -1.4%

Draw 29.4% 33.3% 3.00 -7.1%

Away win 24.2% 26.7% 3.75 -5.5%

Over 2.5 39.3% 37.0% 2.70 +6.1%

Over 3.5 19.7% 18.2% 5.50 +5.0%

BTTS 47.4% 45.5% 2.20 +4.3%

Home O1.5 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

Away O1.5 20.1% 23.8% 4.20 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 142 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.4%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.9%

#2 1–0✓ 18.4%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Velez Sarsfield1.2

Instituto Cordoba0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VELEZ SARSFIELD · PPG 1.67

INSTITUTO CORDOBA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

47%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Velez Sarsfield (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -1.4%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.1%

Instituto Cordoba (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Velez Sarsfield face Instituto Cordoba in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Velez Sarsfield a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Instituto Cordoba 24%, so Velez Sarsfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Velez Sarsfield and 0.7 for Instituto Cordoba (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Velez Sarsfield are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Instituto Cordoba. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Velez Sarsfield vs Instituto Cordoba Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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