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Defensa Y Justicia vs Aldosivi Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 00:45

Defensa Y Justicia

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Aldosivi

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLW

// Model verdict

Home 53% chance

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-17.0%0-21.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.7%1-110.5%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-17.8%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.3%3-13.9%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 52.6% 1.90 +3.5%

Draw 25.3% 31.7% 3.15 -12.2%

Away win 20.3% 22.5% 4.45 -5.8%

Over 2.5 45.5% 38.5% 2.60 +18.3%

Over 3.5 25.5% 19.0% 5.25 +20.3%

BTTS 47.7% 44.4% 2.25 +7.3%

Home O1.5 46.3% 42.6% 2.35 +8.8%

Away O1.5 19.1% 22.2% 4.50 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 142 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.7%

H 55% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.7%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 2–0 14.7%

#4 1–1✓ 10.5%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensa Y Justicia1.5

Aldosivi0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA · PPG 1.00

ALDOSIVI · PPG 0.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Defensa Y Justicia (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +3.5%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -12.2%

Aldosivi (A) 20.3%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensa Y Justicia face Aldosivi in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensa Y Justicia a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Aldosivi 20%, so Defensa Y Justicia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Defensa Y Justicia and 0.5 for Aldosivi (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensa Y Justicia are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.12 for Aldosivi. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Defensa Y Justicia vs Aldosivi Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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