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Defensa Y Justicia vs Aldosivi Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 1 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 00:45

Defensa Y Justicia

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aldosivi

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-16.9%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.5%1-110.4%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-17.9%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.4%3-14.0%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 52.6% 1.90 +4.1%

Draw 25.0% 31.7% 3.15 -12.8%

Away win 20.2% 22.5% 4.45 -6.1%

Over 2.5 46.8% 36.4% 2.75 +28.7%

Over 3.5 26.4% 17.4% 5.75 +31.1%

BTTS 47.9% 43.5% 2.30 +10.2%

Home O1.5 46.3% 41.7% 2.40 +11.1%

Away O1.5 19.1% 21.1% 4.75 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.9%

H 55% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.5%

#2 2–0 14.8%

#3 0–0 12.9%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensa Y Justicia1.5

Aldosivi0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA · PPG 1.00

ALDOSIVI · PPG 0.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Defensa Y Justicia (H) 54.8%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +4.1%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -12.8%

Aldosivi (A) 20.2%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensa Y Justicia face Aldosivi in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensa Y Justicia a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Aldosivi 20%, so Defensa Y Justicia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Defensa Y Justicia and 0.5 for Aldosivi (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensa Y Justicia are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.12 for Aldosivi. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.1%.

Defensa Y Justicia vs Aldosivi Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Predictions