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Racing Club vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 22:00

Racing Club

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Gimnasia L.P.

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-110.0%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.2%1-112.9%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.3%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.6%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 55.2% 1.81 -18.2%

Draw 28.6% 30.8% 3.25 -4.2%

Away win 26.2% 20.8% 4.80 +15.5%

Over 2.5 43.6% 38.2% 2.62 +14.2%

Over 3.5 23.0% 19.0% 5.25 +12.4%

BTTS 48.5% 43.5% 2.30 +11.6%

Home O1.5 38.5% 44.4% 2.25 -13.4%

Away O1.5 20.1% 20.0% 5.00 +0.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 142 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 2–1✓ 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Club1.3

Gimnasia L.P.0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING CLUB · PPG 1.29

GIMNASIA L.P. · PPG 1.60

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 2.14 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Racing Club (H) 45.2%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -18.2%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -4.2%

Gimnasia L.P. (A) 26.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Club face Gimnasia L.P. in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Club a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Gimnasia L.P. 26%, so Racing Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Racing Club and 0.9 for Gimnasia L.P. (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Club are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.60 for Gimnasia L.P.. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +29.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Racing Club vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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