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Gimnasia M. vs Central Cordoba de Santiago Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 19:45

Gimnasia M.

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Central Cordoba de Santiago

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLD

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-18.4%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.1%1-111.7%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-18.2%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.8%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 55.6% 1.80 -3.3%

Draw 26.3% 31.7% 3.15 -10.3%

Away win 20.0% 19.6% 5.10 +1.2%

Over 2.5 46.8% 33.9% 2.95 +38.1%

Over 3.5 26.7% 16.0% 6.25 +40.1%

BTTS 48.5% 39.2% 2.55 +23.7%

Home O1.5 44.5% 41.7% 2.40 +6.8%

Away O1.5 19.8% 17.4% 5.75 +8.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 142 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 18.1%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.7%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia M.1.4

Central Cordoba de Santiago0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA M. · PPG 1.62

CENTRAL CORDOBA DE SANTIAGO · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia M. (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -3.3%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -10.3%

Central Cordoba de Santiago (A) 20.0%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia M. face Central Cordoba de Santiago in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia M. a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Central Cordoba de Santiago 20%, so Gimnasia M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gimnasia M. and 0.6 for Central Cordoba de Santiago (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia M. are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.38 for Central Cordoba de Santiago. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +40.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Gimnasia M. vs Central Cordoba de Santiago Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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