Today / Bolivia - Primera División / Aurora vs ABB

Aurora vs ABB Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 11 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 23:00

Aurora

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

ABB

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 78% chance

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-11.9%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.9%1-15.7%1-22.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.7%2-18.4%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.5%3-18.2%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-013.0%4+-112.5%4+-26.0%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.0% 71.4% 1.40 -7.6%

Draw 17.1% 20.0% 5.00 -8.7%

Away win 16.9% 18.5% 5.40 -5.2%

Over 2.5 67.0% 78.1% 1.28 -14.2%

Over 3.5 46.0% 56.5% 1.77 -18.6%

BTTS 62.1% 70.4% 1.42 -11.8%

Home O1.5 77.3% 78.1% 1.28 -1.1%

Away O1.5 29.2% 39.2% 2.55 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -28.6%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.1%

H 66% / xG 2.9-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 8.7%

#2 3–0 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aurora2.9

ABB1.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 46.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AURORA · PPG 1.80

ABB · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

78%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.98 for Home, form 1.80 vs 0.60 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Aurora (H) 66.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -7.6%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -8.7%

ABB (A) 16.9%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aurora face ABB in Bolivia - Primera División on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aurora a 66% chance, the draw 17% and ABB 17%, so Aurora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Aurora and 1.0 for ABB (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aurora are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.60 for ABB. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Aurora vs ABB Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bolivia - Primera División Predictions